Hurricane Dean is the fourth named storm, third tropical cyclone, first hurricane and first major hurricane of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, and the most intense tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin since Hurricane Wilma of 2005. A Cape Verde-type hurricane, as of 18 August 2007 it is moving through the eastern Caribbean Sea west of the Lesser Antilles where it killed 3 people.
On August 11, 2007, a vigorous tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa, producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. It encountered conditions favorable for gradual development, and on August 12 it gained organization and became a low. Strong upper-level easterly winds stalled development by preventing much more organization. On August 13 the tropical wave organized and, based on visible and infrared satellite imagery, the National Hurricane Center concluded that it had formed into Tropical Depression Four at 1500 UTC about 520 miles (835 km) west-southwest of Cape Verde.
The depression was already exhibiting persistent deep convection, albeit confined to the western portion of its circulation due to easterly wind shear. The depression was expected to strengthen significantly over the coming days due to abating wind shear and warming sea surface temperatures which created conditions favorable for tropical intensification. The depression moved briskly westward, south of a deep layered ridge, quickly escaping the easterly shear and moving over warmer waters.
Based on microwave satellite images and QuikSCAT data, the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Dean at 1500 UTC on August 14. That afternoon its convection waned slightly as part of a diurnal fluctuation, but an AMSU pass suggested growing intensity. Intensity continued to build as convection flared in the center on the night of August 14. This was most likely due to continuing decreases in the easterly wind shear. Dry air and cooler air inflow from the north were slowing structural development, but nevertheless ragged bands began to form on August 15. By mid-morning hints of a banding eye had been spotted on satellite imagery and the storm continued to strengthen. Visible satellite images showed a tightly curved band wrapping around the center later that day and microwave images suggested the formation of a partial eyewall.
Intensification continued through the night and the storm was upgraded to Hurricane Dean at 5 am EDT (9 am UTC) August 16. A strong deep-layered ridge continued to steer the system west, towards the Caribbean Sea. That same afternoon convective banding and increasing upper-level outflow strengthened the storm to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. The eye disappeared briefly overnight, possibly as part of a diurnal fluctuation, and a ragged eye had returned by the morning of August 17. Dry air intrusion and slight westerly shear appeared to slow but not reverse the storm's development. A reconnaissance aircraft later that day discovered a closed eyewall, and increased banding created a more organized cloud pattern on satellite imagery. Data from the aircraft also indicated that Hurricane Dean had strengthened to a Category 3 hurricane. Satellite imagery on the evening of August 17 showed a well defined eye feature as numerous cyclonically curved convective bands remained over the Lesser Antilles. During the evening of August 17, data from a reconnaissance aircraft showed that Dean had strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane. Additional reconnaissance aircraft equipped with a stepped-frequency microwave radiometer confirmed the Dvorak estimates which showed that Hurricane Dean was steadily intensifying through the night. The aircraft data also showed that the wind radii had increased in all quadrants as the storm grew not only in intensity but also in size.
Preparations
About a dozen cruise ships altered their itineraries to avoid the hurricane.
Lesser Antilles
Hurricane watches were issued at 11 pm AST August 15 (0300 UTC August 16) for St. Lucia, Martinique, Saba, St. Eustatius, and Guadeloupe and its dependencies. At this time a tropical storm watch was also issued for St. Maarten. At 5 am AST (0900 UTC) August 16 St. Lucia's hurricane watch was upgraded as hurricane warnings were issued for the islands of Dominica and St. Lucia. A tropical storm warning was issued for Barbados and a tropical storm watch was issued for St. Vincent and Grenada and its dependencies as Dean approached the Lesser Antilles. At 8 a.m. AST (1200 UTC) tropical storm watches were issued for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis. Within 3 hours the tropical storm watches on Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and St. Maarten were upgraded to tropical storm warnings and at 11 a.m. AST (1500 UTC) the hurricane watches of Saba and St. Eustatius were downgraded to tropical storm warnings. Tropical storm warnings were also issued for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Six hours later, at 5 pm AST (2100 UTC) August 16, hurricane warnings were issued for Martinique and Guadeloupe and its dependencies and a tropical storm watch was issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands. At 5 p.m. AST (2100 UTC) August 16 a tropical storm watch was issued for Anguilla. At 11 p.m. AST August 16 (0300 UTC August 17) the U.S. Virgin Islands were upgraded to a tropical storm warning. The next morning a tropical storm warning was issued for the British Virgin Islands.
Both of St. Lucia's commercial airports were closed on that day. The main airport in Martinique closed as well; authorities in the island set up shelters and canceled a memorial to the victims of West Caribbean Airways Flight 708. In Dominica, a dozen and a half tourists were evacuated to concrete shelters and the government in Dominica canceled leave for emergency service personnel.
Greater Antilles
Puerto Rico
At 5 pm AST (2100 UTC) August 16 a tropical storm watch was issued for Puerto Rico. At 11 p.m. AST August 16 (0300 UTC August 17) this advisory was upgraded to a tropical storm warning. The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency deployed a five-member Federal Incident Response Support Team to the island ahead of Hurricane Dean, equipped with satellite communication systems to provide video-teleconferencing and and help make real-time assessments of any damage.
Dominican Republic
A tropical storm watch was issued for the south coast of the Dominican Republic at 11 p.m. AST August 16 (0300 UTC August 17). On August 17 this tropical storm watch was upgraded to a tropical storm warning. Additionally a hurricane watch was issued from Cabo Beata to the Haitian border. This was further upgraded that night with a hurricane warning from Barahona to the Haitian border.
Haiti
A tropical storm watch was issued at 5 a.m. AST (0900 UTC) August 17 for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from Port-au-Prince to the Dominican border. This advisory was upgraded the next morning to a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch, and that night was further upgraded to a hurricane warning.
The Haitian coastal authority advised all small craft to stay on port, while at Port-au-Prince, all flights to southern Haiti from Toussaint Louverture International Airport were canceled.
Jamaica
On August 17 a hurricane watch was issued for Jamaica. Prime Minister of Jamaica Portia Simpson-Miller convened an emergency meeting of Jamaica's national disaster preparedness council. The Jamaican government finalized evacuation plans, including making the country's national arena a shelter, and relocating inmates from two maximum security prisons. Political parties in the island suspended their campaigning operations for the August 27 national elections, to allow residents to prepare for the storm.
On August 18 the hurricane watch was adjusted to a hurricane warning.
Cuba
On August 17 a tropical storm watch was issued for Cuba between the provinces of Camagüey and Guantánamo. This was upgraded on the afternoon of August 18 to a tropical storm warning. If necessary, soldiers and emergency officials were prepared to convert schools and other government buildings into temporary shelters.
Cayman Islands
On August 18 a hurricane watch was issued for the Cayman Islands.
Mexico
The Coordinación General de Protección Civil has declared a state of emergency for the entire Mexican state of Quintana Roo, which includes the towns and cities of Cancún, Playa del Carmen, Tulum and Chetumal as well as the islands of Cozumel, Isla Mujeres and Holbox. On August 18 authorities began evacuating people from the Caribbean coast, removing 2,500 people from Holbox.
With 20,000 food packages ready just in case, the state of Yucatán, Quintana Roo's neighbour to the northwest, has declared a green alert. This indicates minimal danger but comes with the recommendation that all in the region keep an eye on Dean.
Belize
The Belizean coastguard has met with emergency committees on Caye Caulker and Ambergris Caye to discuss the possibility of evacuating these islands. Evacuations could start as early as Sunday, 19 August, with tourists taking priority. The coastguard is confident that it has sufficient time and access to enough ships and planes to get everybody safely to Belize City before any storm surge hits, provided there are not too many ‘procrastinators’.
United States
Louisiana
The Governor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness activated its Crisis Action Team on August 16 to monitor the storm and coordinate preparation. Governor of Louisiana Kathleen Blanco declared a state of emergency early on the evening of August 17 and asked for a presidential emergency declaration to give Louisiana access to federal funds prior to any landfall.
Texas
Governor of Texas Rick Perry declared Dean to be an imminent threat to the state and initiated a full-scale hurricane preparedness effort on August 17 despite the storm being at least five days away. Texas suffered severe flooding from several June/July storms, and Tropical Storm Erin ensured that the ground was still saturated. Governor Perry fears that more rainfall from Dean will cause additional flash flooding and has 250 Texas Parks and Wildlife Department crews on standby with boats to assist in potential evacuations. He is also willing to deploy up to 10,000 Texas Military Forces soldiers if necessary.
The Texas fuel industry began surging fuel loads to all coastal counties to insure adequate fuel in the event of Hurricane Dean causing a disruption to the fuel distribution system.
In preparation for an evacuation, the Texas Department of Transportation began preparation for extra evacuation lanes and contraflow.
NASA indicated that it will shorten the STS-118 mission as a precaution in case Dean approached Mission Control at the Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center in Houston. To that effect, mission managers cut the mission's final spacewalk short by two hours, allowing them to land a day earlier than originally planned.
Oil companies
Oil futures moved sharply higher on August 15 as analysts considered the impact of Hurricane Dean on refining capacity if it were to move into the Caribbean as predicted. Transocean evacuated 11 "nonessential" workers late on August 15 from an oil rig located about 160 miles (260 km) southeast of New Orleans. The company left about 125 personnel on board the structure. A day later, Royal Dutch Shell evacuated 275 ancillary staff, following an evacuation of 188 due to Tropical Storm Erin.
On August 18, 2007, 10,300 barrels of oil and 11 million cubic feet of natural gas were shut in per day, accounting for 0.8% of crude production in the Gulf of Mexico. By 11:30 a.m. CST (1630 UTC), two rigs and one platform had personnel evacuations to some degree.
Impact
Lesser Antilles
The storm entered the Caribbean through the Saint Lucia Channel between St. Lucia and Martinique on August 17, while still a Category 2 storm.
St. Lucia
St. Lucia experienced 80 kt (90 mph, 145 km/h) winds which uprooted trees, downed electricity poles, disabled bridges, triggered landslides, and damaged several roofs. Victoria Hospital's pediatric ward lost its corrugated metal roof, but its patients had already been evacuated. The capital, Castries, was flooded by the storm surge and high seas deposited boulders and fishing boats on the streets. The island's banana sector was severely damaged, with several of the plantations waterlogged or outright destroyed. One person drowned in St. Lucia after being swept away in a rain-swollen river while trying to recover a cow.
Martinique
Martinique experienced 66 kt (76 mph, 122 km/h) winds with gusts to 90 kt (103 mph, 167 km/h). The torrential rainfall caused flooding throughout the island, with the town of Rivière-Pilote flooding completely. One third of Martinique's population, some 115,000 people, have been left without electricity. The storm destroyed Martinique's entire banana crop, and 70% of the island's sugar cane plantations. A 90-year-old man died from a heart attack and another elderly person died during the storm, although it is unclear whether these deaths were related to Dean.
Dominica
In Dominica, a mother and her seven-year-old son died when a landslide caused by the heavy rains fell onto their house. In another incident two people were injured when a tree fell on their house. Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit estimated that 100 to 125 homes were damaged, and that the agriculture sector was extensively damaged.
Greater Antilles
The storm passed to the south of most of the Greater Antilles, but its outer rain bands passed over many of the islands.
Puerto Rico
Rain from Hurricane Dean closed several roads and heavy surf pounded the coast.
Current storm information
As of 8 p.m. AST August 18 (0000 UTC August 19), Hurricane Dean is located within 10 nautical miles of 16.0°N 71.0°W, about 405 mi (650 km) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 165 mi (265 km) south-southwest of Santo Domingo. Maximum sustained winds are 130 knots (150 mph, 240 km/h), with stronger gusts. Minimum central pressure is 920 mbar (hPa; 27.17 InHg), and the system is moving west at 15 kt (17 mph, 28 km/h).
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the storm center, while tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches (125 to 250 mm) are expected over Jamaica, with possible isolated amounts as high as 20 inches (500 mm). Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) are possible in association with Dean across the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern Cuba, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 10 inches (250 mm) in the mountainous areas of southern Haiti and 7 inches (175 mm) over other mountainous areas.
Coastal storm surges of 7 to 9 feet (2.2 to 2.9 m) are possible in the hurricane warning area, along with large and dangerous waves.
NOAA sea buoy 42059, which took a direct hit from Hurricane Dean, reported a significant wave height of 33 feet at 4 a.m. AST (0800 UTC) August 18.
